🎄 Pulse of the Pit – Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Christmas Eve trade: extremely thin liquidity, exaggerated moves, and structure over everything.
📅 Today’s Watch-List: Key Catalysts
This is a holiday-shortened session, and that fact alone is the most important catalyst today.
Market Hours & Liquidity
Early close today (cash equities close early).
Many institutional desks are already offline.
Expect:
Very light volume
Sudden spikes
Fast reversals
Poor follow-through
Macro & Rates
No major U.S. economic data scheduled.
Treasury yields still matter, but reactions may be muted or exaggerated due to low participation.
Any unexpected headline could cause outsized but temporary moves.
Positioning
This is not a conviction day — it’s a positioning and liquidity day.
Algorithmic flow dominates, especially during the pit session.
Bottom line:
Today is about levels, balance, and risk control, not trend discovery.
📈 ES – E-mini S&P 500
Current Conditions
ES remains elevated near recent highs.
Momentum has slowed noticeably.
Buyers defend dips; sellers show up quickly on strength.
What to Expect Today
Early chop is likely.
Moves away from balance are prone to snap back.
Sustained trends are unlikely in holiday liquidity.
Trading Focus
Trade extremes only.
Avoid chasing any move that looks “too clean.”
Take profits faster than usual.
📈 NQ – Nasdaq / Tech
Current Conditions
Tech remains sensitive to yield movement, but volume is extremely light.
Leadership is narrow.
What to Expect
Volatility without commitment.
NQ likely mirrors ES but exaggerates moves.
Trading Focus
Small size only.
Avoid holding through mid-session whipsaws.
🥇 Gold (GC)
Current Conditions
Gold participation is muted, but still responsive to yield movement.
Directional conviction is limited.
What to Expect
Sideways to choppy trade.
Mean-reversion favored.
🛢️ Oil (CL)
Current Conditions
Oil remains range-bound.
No meaningful catalysts today.
What to Expect
Quiet session.
Not a priority market today.
₿ Crypto (BTC / ETH / Alts)
Current Conditions
Crypto remains volatile, especially during low-liquidity periods.
Thin books exaggerate moves.
What to Expect
Sharp but unreliable swings.
Best avoided unless trading very small size.
🏠 Real Estate
Current Conditions
No intraday impact.
Market effectively closed from a decision-making standpoint.
🎯 PRO TRADE OF THE DAY – ES (Pit Session Only)
Pit Session Levels
High: 6963.50
Low: 6919
IF ES OPENS GAP UP → LOOK SHORT BELOW:
6963.50
IF ES OPENS GAP DOWN → LOOK LONG ABOVE:
6919
6924.25
6935.75
6943.75
6953.50
TARGET FOR EITHER SET OF ENTRIES:
🎯 6960.50
IF ES OPENS IN BALANCE (within yesterday’s range):
LOOK SHORT BELOW:
6919
6908.75
6902.25
6895
LOOK LONG ABOVE:
6963.50
Why This Setup Works Today
Holiday sessions favor mean-reversion and range behavior.
ES continues to respect pit-session structure.
Clear levels and a single target reduce decision-making in thin markets.
Ideal for a day where liquidity, not conviction, drives price.
🔎 OVERALL TAKEAWAY
Today is a capital-preservation day.
Christmas Eve trading is about:
Light volume
Fast moves
Low reliability
High risk for overtrading
This environment rewards:
Smaller size
Quicker exits
Levels over opinions
Discipline over activity
If you trade today, trade selectively and intentionally.
There is no prize for activity on Christmas Eve — but there is a penalty for sloppiness.
Protect capital.
Respect the levels.
Enjoy the holiday. 🎄