Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Year-end tape: thin liquidity, positioning over conviction, and structure doing the heavy lifting.
📅 Today’s Watch-List: Key Catalysts
There are no dominant scheduled catalysts today — and that is the catalyst.
Year-End Positioning
Institutional desks are focused on:
Closing books
Reducing risk
Window-dressing portfolios
This often creates price movement disconnected from fundamentals.
Liquidity Conditions
Participation remains extremely light.
Expect:
Fast moves
Poor follow-through
Sharp reversals
Algorithmic and short-term traders dominate the pit session.
Macro & Rates
No Tier-1 U.S. economic data scheduled.
Treasury yields still matter, but reactions may be muted or exaggerated.
Any surprise headline can trigger outsized but temporary moves.
Bottom line:
This is a flow-driven, structure-driven session, not a trend-building day.
📈 ES – E-mini S&P 500
Current Conditions
ES remains elevated near year-end highs.
Momentum has slowed materially.
Buyers defend dips; sellers lean on strength.
Breadth remains mixed — typical of late-December trade.
What to Expect Today
Early range behavior is likely.
Moves away from balance are vulnerable to retracement.
Any late-day push may be positioning-driven rather than directional.
Trading Focus
Trade extremes, not the middle.
Avoid chasing breakouts without volume.
Take profits faster than usual.
📈 NQ – Nasdaq / Tech
Current Conditions
Tech remains sensitive to yield movement.
Leadership is narrow and fragile.
What to Expect
Volatility without sustained commitment.
NQ may exaggerate ES moves due to thinner books.
Trading Focus
Tactical trades only.
Avoid holding size into late-day illiquidity.
🥇 Gold (GC)
Current Conditions
Gold participation remains selective.
Price action is technical rather than narrative-driven.
What to Expect
Sideways to choppy trade.
Mean-reversion favored unless yields move decisively.
🛢️ Oil (CL)
Current Conditions
Oil remains range-bound amid mixed demand expectations.
What to Expect
Quiet session.
Not a priority market in thin year-end trade.
₿ Crypto (BTC / ETH / Alts)
Current Conditions
Crypto remains volatile due to thin books.
Moves can be sharp but unreliable.
What to Expect
Fast spikes and reversals.
Best suited for short-term, defined-risk trades only.
🏠 Real Estate
Current Conditions
Effectively inactive from an intraday perspective.
Market focus shifts to January.
🎯 PRO TRADE OF THE DAY – ES (Pit Session Only)
Today’s trade is brought to you by pro trader and instructor Patrick Assalone, of Target Trading Academy. |
It is a Pit Session-Opening “GAP FILL” in the ES. If you would are not sure of how to take the trade, please watch the video HERE, or schedule a call with their team. |
Here are the specifics of the Trade: |
Pit Session Levels
High: 6967.50
Low: 6936.25
IF ES OPENS GAP UP → LOOK SHORT BELOW:
6967.50
6962.25
IF ES OPENS GAP DOWN → LOOK LONG ABOVE:
6936.25
6944.25
6951
TARGET FOR EITHER SET OF ENTRIES:
🎯 6955.50 (the “Point of Control”)
IF ES OPENS IN BALANCE (within yesterday’s range):
LOOK SHORT BELOW:
6936.25
6924.25
6919
6908.75
LOOK LONG ABOVE:
6967.50
6976.25
6986.50
6993.75
🧠 TRADE EXPLANATION – WHY THIS WORKS TODAY
This is a classic year-end mean-reversion setup.
Key characteristics of today’s environment:
Thin liquidity
Reduced institutional participation
Algorithmic dominance
Price gravitating toward fair value / midpoint
Why These Levels Matter
The pit session high and low define where real participation occurred.
When ES opens outside that range:
Price often rotates back toward the middle before deciding direction.
The 6955.50 target represents a natural reversion zone where:
Shorts cover
Longs take profit
Liquidity concentrates
Execution Philosophy
This is not a breakout trade.
It is a rotation and balance trade.
Patience is required — let price come to levels.
Smaller size, quicker exits.
In thin year-end markets, structure beats conviction.
🔎 OVERALL TAKEAWAY
Today is a capital-preservation session.
With year-end liquidity conditions firmly in place:
Moves can be fast but unreliable
False breakouts are common
Mean-reversion dominates
This environment rewards:
Patience over aggression
Levels over narratives
Risk management over activity
There is no need to force trades in the final sessions of the year. The best traders finish December the same way they started it: disciplined, selective, and intact.
Trade the levels.
Respect the structure.
Finish the year strong by protecting capital.