Thursday, January 8, 2026
Early January markets shift from curiosity to conviction — but only after price proves it.
📅 Today’s Watch-List: Key Catalysts
Today sits at a critical inflection point in the first full trading week of the year. Liquidity is present, but commitment is still being tested.
Institutional Participation
Most desks are now fully active.
Markets are transitioning from:
Level discovery → directional commitment
Moves that hold today carry more weight than those earlier in the week.
Macro & Rates
Treasury yields remain the primary driver:
Stable or falling yields → supportive for equities
Rising yields → pressure on risk assets
Watch the 10-year yield closely — ES remains highly rate-sensitive at current levels.
Economic Calendar
No Tier-1 U.S. economic releases today.
That puts focus squarely on:
Order flow
Market internals
Acceptance or rejection of prior highs
Market Psychology
Early-January optimism is still present.
The biggest risk today is confusing movement with confirmation.
Expect:
Sharp reactions at known levels
Cleaner structure than last week
Still some false starts before trends solidify
Theme for today:
Let price prove it.
📈 ES – E-mini S&P 500
Current Conditions
ES is pressing into new territory near psychological round numbers.
Buyers are active, but supply increases as price stretches higher.
Momentum exists, but follow-through remains selective.
What to Expect Today
Early directional attempts are likely.
Failed breakouts near highs would signal rotation or pause.
Acceptance above recent highs opens continuation potential.
How to Trade It
Respect pit-session structure.
Avoid chasing strength without confirmation.
Reaction trades at key levels remain the highest probability.
📈 NQ – Nasdaq / Tech
Current Conditions
Tech continues to exaggerate ES movement.
Leadership remains narrow, making rallies fragile.
What to Expect
Larger intraday swings than ES.
Watch whether tech confirms or diverges — it will set the risk tone.
How to Trade It
Tactical trades only.
Yield confirmation remains essential.
🥇 Gold (GC)
Current Conditions
Gold remains technically clean but less dominant than equities this week.
Price remains sensitive to yields and dollar movement.
What to Expect
Responsive, reactive trade rather than trend.
Better suited for structure-based setups.
🛢️ Oil (CL)
Current Conditions
Oil remains range-bound amid mixed demand narratives.
What to Expect
Headline-driven movement possible.
Not the cleanest opportunity today.
₿ Crypto (BTC / ETH / Alts)
Current Conditions
Crypto remains volatile with improving liquidity.
Correlation with equities remains high.
What to Expect
Sharp swings.
Watch equity sentiment for confirmation.
🏠 Real Estate
Current Conditions
Focus remains on rates and financing expectations.
No meaningful intraday signal today.
🎯 PRO TRADE TIP OF THE DAY – ES (Pit Session Only)
Presented by Patrick Assalone – Target Trading Academy
Trade Type: Pit Session Opening “Gap Fill”
Market: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES)
Session: Pit Session Only
If you’re unfamiliar with pit-session gap-fill execution, review the educational video provided by Target Trading Academy or schedule a call with their team before attempting the setup.
How to Use This Plan
Identify the open type:
Gap Up
Gap Down
In Balance
Execute only at listed levels and only in the stated direction.
Target is fixed for all setups.
Risk is managed through position sizing and discipline, not wider stops.
Best results typically come from the first clean test of a level.
Pit Session Reference Levels
Pit High: 7006.50
Pit Low: 6998.25
🔻 IF ES OPENS GAP UP → LOOK SHORT BELOW
7006.50
6998.25
🔺 IF ES OPENS GAP DOWN → LOOK LONG ABOVE
6958.25
6967
6971.75
6977.75
6981
6988.25
🎯 TARGET FOR EITHER SET OF ENTRIES
➡️ 6995
🔄 IF ES OPENS IN BALANCE (within yesterday’s range)
LOOK SHORT BELOW
6958.25
6950.75
6915.25
6908.50
LOOK LONG ABOVE
7006.50
🧠 TRADE EXPLANATION – WHY THIS SETUP WORKS
This is a structure-based, reaction trade, ideal for early-January conditions.
Why Pit-Session Gap Fills Are Effective
Pit hours concentrate real institutional order flow.
When ES opens outside prior value, price often:
Tests the extreme
Rotates back toward balance
Why the 6995 Target
6995 represents a natural equilibrium zone:
Shorts cover
Longs take profit
Liquidity concentrates
Fixed targets remove emotion and enforce discipline.
Execution Mindset
This is not a breakout trade.
It is a rotation and balance trade.
Smaller size and patience outperform conviction here.
🔎 OVERALL TAKEAWAY
Today is about confirmation through behavior, not headlines.
Markets are beginning to decide:
Which January moves deserve follow-through
Which were early enthusiasm
This environment rewards traders who:
Let price come to levels
Trade reactions, not predictions
Respect session context and structure
The ES gap-fill setup provides a clear, rule-based opportunity in a market testing new highs.
Be patient.
Be precise.
Let price do the talking.