After yesterday’s rate cut and Powell’s press conference, today is the true tell for market conviction.

Markets often produce a “second-day reaction” — sometimes the real move happens after the announcement.

Expect wide spreads early as futures and equities reprice globally.

Gold, tech, and yields may produce a second wave of volatility.

Dollar, yields, and cross-market flows may reset based on how investors interpret Powell’s tone.

Risk assets often overreact on Fed day → and normalize the next morning.

ES surged initially after the cut but struggled to hold highs into the close — a sign of mixed conviction.

Breadth improved slightly but remains far from robust.

If yields hold lower → ES may grind upward.

If yields rebound → yesterday’s rally could be retraced quickly.

Expect choppiness early, then a directional push by late morning.

Intraday: Buy dips only if breadth confirms; fade runaway rallies on weak volume.

Swing: Keep exposure moderate — still a macro-sensitive tape.

Risk: Tight stops; today may produce “trap” price action.

Tech ripped higher after the Fed cut but is most vulnerable to a reversal today if yields bounce.

Mega-caps did the heavy lifting — mid-caps lagged.

If Powell’s tone is taken as a green light → continuation rally.

If markets think this was a “one-and-done” cut → NQ weakens sharply.

Expect rapid rotations between tech and defensives.

Intraday: Stick to liquid leaders; avoid laggards.

Swing: Hedge NQ exposure — volatility remains elevated.

Risk: NQ is the most yield-sensitive index — watch bonds like a hawk.

Gold spiked on rate-cut confirmation, but trader sentiment is mixed: some expect further upside from falling yields; others expect profit-taking and a retrace.

Today’s session will determine whether yesterday’s spike was the start of a trend or a knee-jerk reaction.

Early volatility likely; GC often retraces part of post-Fed moves before deciding direction.

Real yields remain the key driver — if they continue lower, gold stays supported.

Rely on pit-session structure today — GC respects those levels well during Fed-week volatility.

Expect a fake-out before the real move.

Oil remains uncertain: macro optimism from the Fed vs. continued global demand concerns.

No major catalysts today.

Likely range-bound unless global demand news or inventories surprise.

Fed-driven optimism may give oil a small tailwind — but not a trend.

Fade range extremes, avoid middle noise.

Intraday momentum unlikely unless news breaks.

Crypto rallied hard on Fed day — as lower rates typically support risk appetite.

But historically, crypto often retraces day-after-Fed before continuing.

High volatility.

BTC may test yesterday’s breakout level; ETH tends to follow.

Altcoins likely to be unstable — good for scalps, dangerous for swings.

Ride momentum but don't marry positions.

Expect whipsaws around mid-morning.

With mortgage rate expectations shifting lower after the Fed cut, real estate may slowly benefit.

But effects take weeks to show up in data or transactions.

Little day-to-day impact, but improved sentiment may start showing up in REITs and builders.

Trend remains rate-dependent.

High: 4235.20

Low: 4216.80

4235.20

4233.50

4216.80

4218.40

4216.80

4204.30

4193.70

4235.20

4240.10

4251.30

Post-Fed sessions often revert toward prior pit-session structure.

GC tends to fake direction early, then revert to mean before the true move.

Today’s compressed range and clearly defined high/low offer excellent risk-defined intraday opportunities.

Whipsaws early, direction later.

False breaks, then real ones.

Heavy algorithmic flow, light retail conviction.

Yields as the master switch — everything else follows.