Friday, December 12, 2025
Your pre-open briefing for equities, commodities, and risk assets — with a focused ES Pro Trade of the Day and a clear overall takeaway for how to approach the session.
📅 Today’s Key Market Context
Market sentiment remains influenced by the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut and liquidity actions. The Fed not only trimmed rates but also signaled technical Treasury bill purchases starting today to manage market liquidity — a move markets interpret as supportive but not a policy shift. Reuters
Equity markets remain resilient:
The S&P 500 closed near record highs after the Fed cut, with broad participation beyond just mega-caps. AP News
However, lingering tech weaknesses — especially from disappointing earnings like Oracle’s — continue to temper enthusiasm. Financial Times+1
Gold and metals markets have been mixed:
Oil prices are sensitive to geopolitical tensions (notably U.S.-Venezuela issues), but the commodity faces mixed supply/demand signals. Reuters
Crypto remains risk-off after Fed caution and tech earnings weakness. Bitcoin recently slid after an initial post-cut rally. Barron's
U.S. labor data showed a larger than expected rise in weekly claims, though much of it may be seasonal noise. Reuters
Taken together, markets are reacting to a mixed macro picture, and today’s price action is likely to reflect continued dispersion between sectors and asset classes.
🧭 ES – E-mini S&P 500
Current conditions
What to expect today
Potential continuation of yesterday’s relief tone, particularly if yields stay controlled.
But risks around earnings disappointment (e.g., Oracle and broader tech weakness) could induce sector rotation or profit taking. Financial Times
Range trading is a base case early; clear breaks may set mid-day direction.
Trading focus
Be attentive to yield changes and breadth metrics — they will often precede price thrusts.
Internal rotation (e.g., cyclical strength vs. tech weakness) may precede broad moves.
📈 NQ – Nasdaq / Tech
Current conditions
Tech indexes remain under pressure relative to broader markets on earnings misses and bubble-concern headlines. Financial Times
Cryptos weakening also reflects a modest risk-off tilt in tech-adjacent asset flows. Barron's
What to expect today
NQ may underperform ES if profit taking spreads beyond just a few big names.
Alternatively, defensive value sectors in tech (cloud, enterprise software) may hold up better.
Trading focus
Intraday: trade liquid names with strong charts — avoid low-volume breakouts.
Market rotation should be watched carefully — a persistent dollar or yield move could exacerbate tech pressure.
🥇 Gold & Metals
Gold
Mixed Fed reaction has left gold modestly lower with short-term hesitation. Reuters
However, global pricing and macro uncertainty keep bullion supported longer term.
Silver
Silver’s maturation as an industrial and strategic metal is driving record prices. Reuters
Bottom line
Gold may chop in the short term — use structural patterns and session context for entries.
Precious metals are effectively reflecting real yields vs. risk off dynamics.
🛢️ Oil (WTI / Brent)
Current conditions
Slight uptick from geopolitical pressures, especially around Venezuelan oil shipments. Reuters
Still, demand narrative remains mixed amid broader macro slowdowns and global growth uncertainties.
Expectations
Range trading with shorts near resistance and selective long opportunities on demand cues.
₿ Crypto (BTC / ETH / Alts)
Current conditions
Crypto remains in risk-off mode following the Fed’s cautious signals and tech earnings disappointments. Barron's
Expectations
Elevated volatility; correlation with broader risk appetite may increase if equity weakness surfaces.
Approach
Intraday reactive trading; avoid larger swing bets until sentiment stabilizes.
🏠 Real Estate
Current outlook
A rate-cut driven yield environment could support segments like REITs and homebuilders over time, but macro noise continues to slow transactional activity.
🎯 PRO TRADING TIP – ES (Pit Session Only)
ES Pit Session Key Levels
High: 6928.25
Low: 6838.50
IF ES OPENS GAP UP → LOOK SHORT BELOW:
6928.25
6907.75
6897.00
6886.75
IF ES OPENS GAP DOWN → LOOK LONG ABOVE:
6838.50
6857.50
IF ES OPENS IN BALANCE (within yesterday’s range):
SHORT Below:
6838.50
6831.00
6820.50
LONG Above:
6928.25
6945.25
6951.50
🔎 OVERALL TAKEAWAY
Today is a session of digestion and clarification.
After the Fed’s rate cut and liquidity operations began, markets spent Thursday rallying and repricing major asset classes — but under the surface, sentiment remained mixed. Stocks closed near highs, but tech weakness and earnings disappointments tempered enthusiasm. Precious metals have responded variably, with silver outperforming and gold showing caution.
Key themes today:
Rotation vs. continuation: Will markets broaden beyond financials/consumer cyclicals, or will tech and risk assets underperform?
Yield and liquidity sensitivity: Bond markets and technical Fed support matter as much as headline data.
Setups over sightlines: With macro signals blurred, playing levels and structure (like today’s ES framework) gives you a defined risk edge.
Today is less about prediction and more about reaction — let the market show its hand, and trade with structure and discipline.