Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Holiday week trading: lighter volume, faster rotations, and markets that reward patience over prediction.
📅 Today’s Watch-List: Key Catalysts
This is a pre-holiday session, which changes how price behaves more than any data point.
Liquidity & Positioning
Many institutional desks are already in year-end management mode.
Expect:
Reduced volume
Faster reactions
More false breakouts
Algorithmic flow dominates the pit session.
Macro & Rates
Treasury yields remain the primary driver, even in thin trade.
Stable or lower yields → supportive for ES and risk assets.
Any surprise yield spike → fast downside response.
No scheduled Fed events today — this is a flow-driven tape.
Economic Data
No Tier-1 U.S. data scheduled.
Any unexpected headline may cause outsized but temporary moves.
Bottom line:
Today favors structure, balance, and mean-reversion, not trend-chasing.
📈 ES – E-mini S&P 500
Current Conditions
ES is holding near highs but momentum has slowed.
Buyers are defending dips; sellers appear quickly on strength.
Breadth remains mixed, typical for holiday trade.
What to Expect Today
Early range trading is likely.
Directional attempts may occur late morning, but follow-through is questionable.
Moves away from balance are vulnerable to retracement.
Trading Focus
Trade extremes, not the middle.
Respect pit session levels.
Avoid chasing holiday-week breakouts.
📈 NQ – Nasdaq / Tech
Current Conditions
Tech remains sensitive to yield movement and profit-taking.
Leadership is narrow; high-beta names remain fragile.
What to Expect
Volatility without commitment.
NQ likely underperforms ES unless yields soften meaningfully.
Trading Focus
Tactical trades only.
Avoid holding size through midday chop.
🥇 Gold (GC)
Current Conditions
Gold remains responsive to yield movement but lacks strong directional conviction.
Participation remains selective.
What to Expect
Sideways to choppy trade.
Mean-reversion favored unless macro headlines emerge.
🛢️ Oil (CL)
Current Conditions
Oil remains range-bound amid mixed demand expectations.
What to Expect
Sideways trade.
Fade extremes rather than chase direction.
₿ Crypto (BTC / ETH / Alts)
Current Conditions
Crypto continues to mirror broader risk sentiment.
Holiday liquidity exaggerates moves.
What to Expect
Sharp intraday swings.
Best suited for short-term, defined-risk trades only.
🏠 Real Estate
Current Conditions
Quiet on an intraday basis.
Longer-term outlook remains rate-dependent.
What to Expect
Minimal day-to-day impact during holiday week.
🎯 PRO TRADE OF THE DAY – ES (Pit Session Only)
Pit Session Levels
High: 6936
Low: 6908.75
IF ES OPENS GAP UP → LOOK SHORT BELOW:
6936
6933.50
IF ES OPENS GAP DOWN → LOOK LONG ABOVE:
6908.75
6917.75
6924.75
TARGET FOR EITHER SET OF ENTRIES:
🎯 6930
IF ES OPENS IN BALANCE (within yesterday’s range):
LOOK SHORT BELOW:
6908.75
6902.25
6895
6879.50
LOOK LONG ABOVE:
6936
Why This Setup Works Today
Holiday sessions favor mean-reversion over trend.
ES continues to respect pit-session structure.
Clear levels and a single target simplify execution.
Ideal for a day dominated by liquidity pockets, not conviction.
🔎 OVERALL TAKEAWAY
Today is a holiday-week structure session.
With no major catalysts and thinning participation:
Moves can be fast but unreliable
False breaks are common
Balance often resolves back toward the middle
This environment rewards:
Patience over aggression
Levels over narratives
Risk management over conviction
Trade smaller, trade cleaner, and don’t overstay positions.
The market isn’t going anywhere — but your capital can if you rush it.
Let the market come to you.
Trade the levels.
Protect capital into the holiday.