🎄 Friday, December 26, 2025
Post-holiday trade: low volume, exaggerated moves, and markets driven almost entirely by structure and liquidity.
📅 Today’s Watch-List: Key Catalysts
Today is less about scheduled events and more about market mechanics.
Holiday Liquidity Hangover
Many institutional desks remain lightly staffed.
Participation is thin, which means:
Faster price moves
Poor follow-through
Frequent snap-backs to balance
Macro & Rates
No Tier-1 U.S. economic data scheduled.
Treasury yields still matter, but reactions may be distorted by low volume.
Any unexpected headline can cause an outsized move — often faded quickly.
Positioning
End-of-year positioning continues.
Algorithms and short-term traders dominate the pit session.
Bottom line:
This is a structure and mean-reversion day, not a trend-building session.
📈 ES – E-mini S&P 500
Current Conditions
ES remains elevated near recent highs.
Momentum is slowing as liquidity thins.
Buyers defend dips, but rallies struggle to extend cleanly.
What to Expect Today
Early chop is likely.
Moves away from balance are vulnerable to retracement.
Sustained trends are unlikely without a surprise catalyst.
Trading Focus
Trade extremes, not the middle.
Take profits quicker than usual.
Avoid chasing any move that looks “too easy.”
📈 NQ – Nasdaq / Tech
Current Conditions
Tech remains sensitive to yield movement but volume is extremely light.
Leadership remains narrow.
What to Expect
Volatility without commitment.
NQ may exaggerate ES moves in thin trade.
Trading Focus
Very small size.
Avoid holding through midday chop.
🥇 Gold (GC)
Current Conditions
Gold participation is muted post-holiday.
Directional conviction is limited.
What to Expect
Sideways to choppy trade.
Mean-reversion favored.
🛢️ Oil (CL)
Current Conditions
Oil remains range-bound.
No meaningful catalysts today.
What to Expect
Quiet session.
Not a priority market today.
₿ Crypto (BTC / ETH / Alts)
Current Conditions
Crypto remains volatile due to thin books.
Moves can be sharp but unreliable.
What to Expect
Fast spikes and reversals.
Best avoided unless trading very small size.
🏠 Real Estate
Current Conditions
Effectively closed from a decision-making standpoint.
Banks are not issuing new notes until next year. Everything is on hold at the moment.
🎯 PRO TRADE OF THE DAY – ES (Pit Session Only)
Today’s trade is brought to you by pro trader and instructor Patrick Assalone, of Target Trading Academy.
It is a Pit Session-Opening “GAP FILL” in the ES. If you would are not sure of how to take the trade, please watch the video HERE, or schedule a call with their team.
Here are the specifics of the Trade:
Last Pit Session Highs/Lows
High: 6987.75
Low: 6957.25
If ES opens GAP UP, meaning above yesterday’s high → LOOK SHORT BELOW:
6987.75
If ES opens GAP DOWN, meaning below 6957.25 → LOOK LONG ABOVE:
6957.25
6960
6971.75
TARGET FOR EITHER SET OF ENTRIES:
🎯 6985
IF ES OPENS IN BALANCE (within yesterday’s high/low range):
LOOK SHORT BELOW:
6957.25
6953.50
6943.75
6935.75
6924.25
LOOK LONG ABOVE:
6987.75
Why This Setup Works Today
Post-holiday sessions strongly favor mean-reversion.
ES continues to respect pit-session structure.
Clear levels and a single target reduce over-thinking.
Ideal for a session where liquidity — not conviction — controls price.
🔎 OVERALL TAKEAWAY
Today is a discipline-first session.
Post-holiday markets are known for:
Thin volume
Fast but unreliable moves
False breakouts
Aggressive snap-backs
This environment rewards:
Smaller size
Quicker exits
Levels over narratives
Patience over activity
There is no rush today — opportunity will expand as liquidity returns next week.
Trade less.
Trade cleaner.
Protect capital.