Monday, February 2, 2026
Week’s first session: liquidity is picking up, positioning adjusts post-Fed, and sentiment is still settling after a volatile end of January.
📅 Today’s Watch-List — Major Scheduled Market Moving News & Events (All Times ET)
📊 Key Economic Data
No tier-1 inflation or labor prints scheduled for today, but there are important data points and macro flows that can still move markets:
2:20 PM ET — NY Fed Bill Purchases (4–12 months)
Impact on short-end yields and liquidity positioning.3:00 PM ET — ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
A critical gauge of U.S. manufacturing expansion/contraction. Below 50 signals contraction pressure — not supportive for risk assets.3:00 PM ET — ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan)
Employment component can impact sentiment around labor strength.3:00 PM ET — ISM Manufacturing New Orders / Prices
Provides insight into demand and inflationary pressures — important for markets still processing Fed rhetoric.
(Note: Calendar coverage is limited; if a last-minute high-impact release is added to primary feeds before market open, I can include it.)
💼 Earnings & Corporate Reports
Q3 earnings continue internationally
Around 70+ companies globally are reporting results today, including some influential names in auto, finance, and fintech sectors, which can impact broader sentiment — especially in EM and cyclical sectors.U.S. earnings calendar shows other names later this week — today may include smaller cap or overseas reports that still influence global risk sentiment.
🧠 Market Sentiment Context
Stock futures were trading softer Sunday night following:
a weekend drop in Bitcoin,
a sharp precious metals sell-off,
broad risk repricing that carried into futures trade.
These cross-asset moves imply traders are digesting carryover risk from January into the February session.
🏦 Fed Recap — What Happened Last Week & Why It Still Matters Today
Last week’s Fed meeting (Jan 28) was the most market-relevant policy event since late 2025. Here’s the distilled impact:
Fed Message
The Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady at 3.50–3.75%, as expected.
The statement and Powell’s press comments emphasized:
ongoing caution on future rate cuts,
continued vigilance on inflation dynamics,
uncertainty in labor and growth data.
How That Impacts Today’s Tape
Today’s session reflects interpretation and digestion, not just reaction:
Yields still lead early price action
If yields rise with risk repricing, equities typically soften.
If yields drift lower — risk assets and interest-rate sensitive sectors get relief.
Dollar and real rates influence commodities
A stronger USD continues to pressure gold and commodities.
A softer USD often improves risk sentiment.
Leadership rotation
Tech and growth names are slower to confirm direction without a clear macro backdrop.
Value and cyclicals react more to data prints and global PMI reads.
Investor psychology
The weekend drop in Bitcoin and metals suggests risk aversion carried over.
Early tape behavior today will reveal whether that sentiment persists.
Translation for traders:
Yesterday established the narrative — today tests whether the market agrees or disagrees with it.
📈 ES – E-mini S&P 500
Current Market Conditions
ES is starting the week with mixed sentiment:
soft futures from weekend carryover risk,
post-Fed uncertainty still active,
balanced between growth and defensive behavior.
What to Expect Today
Early session rotation around risk appetite and yields.
Mid-session data from ISM can sharpen moves.
Without a clear macro driver, structure and key levels will be crucial.
How to Trade It
Look for reactions at prior range edges.
Don’t chase early impulsive moves — let acceptance confirm direction.
Manage size until after ISM data prints.
📈 NQ – Nasdaq / Tech
Current Market Conditions
Tech remains sensitive to:
yield direction,
risk sentiment,
global growth expectations.
What to Expect
Higher volatility than ES.
If risk appetite improves with data, NQ can lead the recovery.
If risk aversion rules early, NQ can lag and amplify weakness.
How to Trade It
Confirm trend with rates and breadth.
Be tactical — tech likes to exaggerate moves intraday.
🥇 Gold (GC)
Current Market Conditions
Gold is still reacting to:
real yields,
Fed communication,
USD strength.
What to Expect Today
If data moderates expectations for future tightening, gold can stabilize or rally.
If data surprises to the upside and supports rate resilience, gold may remain under pressure.
How to Trade It
Trade levels and rotation rather than predicting direction.
First clean tests of range edges offer the best setups.
🛢️ Oil (CL)
Current Market Conditions
Oil tends to respond to:
risk sentiment,
USD movement,
geopolitical headlines.
What to Expect
Choppy trade in the absence of strong macro catalysts.
Repricing if PMI data signals growth contraction or expansion.
How to Trade It
Range trades until a breakout occurs with confirmed strength.
₿ Crypto (BTC / ETH / Alts)
Current Market Conditions
Crypto is still digesting the weekend sell-off.
Equities risk sentiment often bleeds into crypto early in the week.
What to Expect
Early volatility; watch BTC for signs of risk appetite return or further weakness.
How to Trade It
Tactical, defined-risk trades.
Avoid running large positions overnight without a trend confirmation.
🏠 Real Estate
Current Market Conditions
Sensitivity to rate expectations is key.
With yields still in flux post-Fed, real estate markets are in a wait-and-see posture.
What to Expect
Minimal day-to-day movement linked to financial markets.
Real estate is a macro play — not a day-trade play.
🔎 OVERALL TAKEAWAY
Today is not a macro headline day, but it is a structure + sentiment day.
Data prints (ISM) and auction flows matter more than usual because markets are still working through:
last week’s Fed messaging,
weekend risk repricing,
and broader sentiment shifts.
ES/NQ will likely react first to yields and risk trends, then secondarily to data.
Trade structure.
Respect key levels.
Let the market validate direction before committing size.