🎆 Happy New Year’s Eve! Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Year-end trading: half-day conditions, extremely thin liquidity, and markets governed by structure rather than conviction.
📅 Today’s Watch-List: Key Catalysts
On New Year’s Eve, what’s missing matters more than what’s scheduled.
Market Structure & Liquidity
Early close today — participation drops sharply after the morning session.
Most institutional desks are closed or running skeleton crews.
Expect:
Very thin liquidity
Sudden spikes
Fast reversals
Little follow-through
Macro & Rates
No major U.S. economic data.
Treasury yields still influence gold, but reactions can be exaggerated or unreliable.
Any surprise headline can cause a sharp move — usually faded quickly.
Positioning
This is a book-closing session, not a positioning session.
Traders are flattening risk, not initiating trends.
Bottom line:
Today is about structure, balance, and capital protection — not trend discovery.
📈 ES – E-mini S&P 500
Current Conditions
ES remains elevated but directionless.
Momentum has stalled as year-end participation evaporates.
Buyers defend dips; sellers appear quickly on strength.
What to Expect
Narrow ranges and quick reversals.
Any breakout attempt without volume is suspect.
Trading Focus
Small size only.
Trade extremes, not the middle.
Do not chase.
🥇 Gold (GC)
Current Conditions
Gold remains the most technically reliable market today.
GC continues to respect pit-session structure, indicating that real order flow still matters here, even in thin conditions.
What to Expect Today
Early volatility around the open.
Strong tendency toward mean-reversion.
Pit highs and lows remain the most important reference points.
🛢️ Oil (CL)
Current Conditions
Oil is effectively dormant.
No intraday opportunity expected.
₿ Crypto (BTC / ETH / Alts)
Current Conditions
Crypto volatility is exaggerated by thin books.
Moves are fast and unreliable.
What to Expect
Sharp spikes with no confirmation.
Best avoided today.
🏠 Real Estate
Current Conditions
Market effectively closed from a decision-making standpoint.
Focus returns in January.
🎯 PRO TRADE OF THE DAY – GOLD (GC)
Today’s trade is brought to you by pro trader and instructor Patrick Assalone, of Target Trading Academy. |
It is a Pit Session-Opening “GAP FILL” in the ES. If you would are not sure of how to take the trade, please watch the video HERE, or schedule a call with their team. |
Here are the specifics of the Trade: |
FOR GC PIT SESSION ONLY
Pit Session Reference Levels
High: 4413.50
Low: 4370.90
🔻 IF GC OPENS GAP UP → LOOK SHORT BELOW
4413.50
4407.50
4397.60
🔺 IF GC OPENS GAP DOWN → LOOK LONG ABOVE
4370.90
4379.90
🎯 TARGET FOR EITHER SET OF ENTRIES
➡️ 4383.50
🔄 IF GC OPENS IN BALANCE (within yesterday’s range)
LOOK SHORT BELOW
4370.90
4365.20
4352.30
4333.20
4319.90
LOOK LONG ABOVE
4413.50
4424.80
4441.20
4451.30
🧠 TRADE EXPLANATION – WHY THIS SETUP WORKS TODAY
This is a classic New Year’s Eve mean-reversion trade.
Why Gold Today
Gold still attracts participation when equities go quiet.
GC respects pit-session structure more reliably than most markets in thin conditions.
Why These Levels Matter
The pit high and low define where actual participation occurred.
In low-liquidity environments:
Price often tests extremes
Then rotates back toward fair value
4383.50 represents a natural rotation / balance point, where:
Shorts cover
Longs take profit
Liquidity concentrates
How to Execute
This is not a breakout trade.
It is a rotation trade:
Let price come to levels
Scale in conservatively
Take profits quickly
Use smaller size than normal and do not overstay positions.
On days like today, discipline beats aggressiveness every time.
🔎 OVERALL TAKEAWAY
Today is a capital-preservation session.
New Year’s Eve trading is defined by:
Extremely thin liquidity
Fast but unreliable moves
Frequent false breaks
Strong mean-reversion
This environment rewards:
Smaller size
Quicker exits
Levels over narratives
Discipline over activity
There is no advantage to pressing trades today. The goal is to finish the year flat, focused, and intact — ready to trade with size and conviction when liquidity returns in January.
Trade the structure.
Respect the levels.
Protect capital.
🎉 Finish the year strong — see you in 2026.