Thursday, January 29th, 2026
Midweek markets weigh yesterday’s Fed action against today’s price behavior — and the news calendar supports structured, informed trading.
📅 Today’s Watch-List: Major Scheduled Catalysts (All Times ET)
🔹 10:00 AM — GDP Chain Price & Real Output (Prelim Q4)
Early U.S. inflation and growth data release window. These Q4 preliminary prints provide context on growth and price pressure that the Fed just responded to. Higher rates of growth/inflation often increase rate sensitivity in equities and bonds.
🔹 10:00 AM — Treasury 26-Week Bill Auction
May have a modest influence on short-end yields, which can bleed into cash rates and forward curve expectations.
🔹 10:30 AM — Treasury 4-Week Bill Auction
Same as above; relatively low direct market impact but part of the “flow backdrop.”
🔹 12:00 PM — Treasury 7-Year Note Auction
The 7-year auction can influence the intermediate yield curve, which markets watch post-Fed for policy expectations.
Note: While these releases aren’t all high-impact like CPI or NFP, the market remains more reactive this week due to the recent Fed meeting and ongoing rate expectations.
🏦 Fed Recap — Yesterday’s FOMC & Its Impact on Today’s Trade
Yesterday’s Fed meeting was the first major monetary policy event of the year, and its effects will shape markets not just during the open but throughout today’s session.
What the Fed Said
The FOMC held rates steady, as expected.
Importantly, the tone was interpreted as:
data-dependent rather than positioning for aggressive cuts,
cautious optimism on inflation’s progress,
still vigilant on labor market strength.
What That Means for Today
Markets are now trading the interpretation, not the event.
Yields & the dollar remain leading signals:
If yields flatten or fall → equities and gold find support.
If yields rise off the meeting → risk assets can see selling pressure.
Today is about validation:
Is the Fed’s cautious message being confirmed by price action?
Or was yesterday’s move simply volatility around a scheduled event?
Translation:
Yesterday set the narrative; today tests whether price agrees or disagrees with it.
📈 ES – E-mini S&P 500
Current Market Conditions
ES is trading in a post-Fed sensitivity zone:
Friday’s rotation
Tuesday’s confirmation attempts
Today’s structural validation
What to Expect Today
Early morning data could create a rotation before direction.
Post data, markets will focus on yield and dollar behavior:
Bullish acceptance → continuation
Failed breakout → rotation back toward balance
How to Trade It
Let direction confirm via:
reactions at session highs/lows
volume increase, not just price change
Avoid assuming a breakout; wait for acceptance above/below key levels.
📈 NQ – Nasdaq / Tech
Current Market Conditions
NQ continues to amplify ES moves, especially around macro risk drivers.
Tech leadership is narrow; one sector shock can skew the index.
What to Expect Today
Increased volatility, especially if short-term yields change post-data.
Divergences vs ES are meaningful — often a “tells you first” signal.
How to Trade It
Confirm trend via yield movement first.
Prefer smaller sizes in early sessions; tech whipsaws quickly without conviction.
🥇 Gold (GC)
Current Market Conditions
Gold remains closely tied to:
real yields
dollar direction
macro sentiment
What to Expect Today
Rates influence gold most in sessions following Fed days.
If yields soften with data, gold can rally and trend.
If yields rise, gold may rotate or chop.
How to Trade It
Trade structure — session highs/lows, clean tests of levels.
Avoid momentum chasing; gold often “tags and reverses” in volatile sessions.
🛢️ Oil (CL)
Current Market Conditions
Oil remains range-bound and generally acts as a macro proxy (via USD / risk sentiment) more than a trend market today.
What to Expect
Choppy session unless a geo-macro headline hits.
Secondary to yields and macro commentary in guiding risk tendencies.
₿ Crypto (BTC / ETH / Alts)
Current Market Conditions
Crypto remains sentiment-driven and equity correlated.
Post-Fed liquidity expectations can tilt crypto tone.
What to Expect
Fast spikes and reversals if equities show rotational behavior.
Alts exaggerate the extremes.
🏠 Real Estate
Current Market Conditions
Sensitivity to mortgage rates and yield direction.
Not a day trading market; more of a macro mood gauge.
No Pro Trade of the Day Today
The Fed meetings and earnings reports created a dangerous environment, with no clear direction or levels. As a Pro, this is not an easy day for forecast early - it is more about daytrading quickly - getting in and out based on indicators in the moment - than taking predictable entries.
🔎 OVERALL TAKEAWAY
Today is a confirmation and structure session — not a "headline" day.
Above key levels with acceptance → continuation bias
Rejection at levels with rotation → range / consolidation bias
Economic prints this morning help set the stage
Yields and the dollar will tell you whether yesterday’s Fed message is being embraced or rejected
Trade what the market proves — not what you think should happen.
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